Ahead of Powell's speech at Jackson Hole tonight, Bitcoin and Ethereum see slight fluctuations.

Ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at 8 PM tonight in Jackson Hole, BTC and ETH prices experienced slight fluctuations.

As of now, the BTC price has dropped to $112,873 (a decrease of 0.5% in the past 24 hours), and ETH is also at $4,316 (a decline of 0.6% in the past hour). This phenomenon is mainly due to investors' cautious attitude ahead of significant policy signals.

The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, but recent inflation data exceeded expectations, causing some committee members to have doubts about the timing of the rate cut. Currently, the probability forecast for a rate cut in September has fallen from a previously high level to around 71.3%.

At the same time, the market views Powell's speech as a key indicator for the September interest rate decision. If he releases dovish signals, it could drive Bitcoin towards $130,000; however, if his stance is more hawkish, it may trigger risk aversion in the market, and BTC could test the support level of $105,000.

According to reports, Powell's speech will focus on "Economic Outlook and Framework Assessment," where he will elaborate on his views on the macroeconomy and discuss the Federal Reserve's long-term policy objectives. Given that most of the meeting's content is not made public, the market will also closely watch the media interviews of five Federal Reserve officials, as these interviews often reveal policy directions more than academic discussions.

Most central bank governors around the world are expected to support Powell in response to the political pressure he faces for rejecting interest rate cuts. European Central Bank President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will also participate in a panel discussion on "Policy Implications of Labor Market Transformation" on Sunday, and their statements may also impact the market.

In terms of capital flow, although there has been significant capital outflow from BTC and ETH ETFs in the past week, on-chain data shows that long-term investors are still continuously accumulating Bitcoin, with holdings exceeding 15 million coins. The network hash rate of BTC has reached a peak of 930 EH/s, indicating that the market fundamentals remain healthy.

In summary, Powell's Jackson Hole speech may become a key catalyst for short-term market trends, especially during this sensitive period of a weak labor market.

However, there is no need to panic excessively. Although market volatility may intensify in the short term, the long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin remain solid.

#JacksonHole全球央行年会 # Powell's speech